There is plenty of statistical data to work within the NBA, with the 30 teams playing 1, regular-season games. Field goal percentage and scoring margin are two critical statistical categories, and throughout the season, these will generally indicate which teams are the best. The most significant variables on a single game basis are three-point shooting and free-throw shooting percentage.
These two statistical categories can fluctuate significantly on a short-term basis and create misleading single-game results. Watch for these two stats when handicapping teams, as it often presents value in future games. Home teams typically shoot better and get more favorable foul calls. Home teams win around 60 percent of the games outright, translating to approximately a three-point edge in the point spread, which means if two equal teams are playing, the home team will generally be a three-point favorite.
Another reason home teams have an edge is because of travel. Usually, home teams play several straight games at home and face opponents playing several road games in a row, all in different cities.
NBA road teams often play back-to-back days without rest. They never play three straight games without rest, but sometimes teams play three games in four nights or four games in five days which can leave a team fatigued. The long game regular season means teams go through hot and cold streaks, coinciding with injuries.
Basketball is a unique team sport as just a single star player can account for percent of the team's offensive production. When an All-Star is missing, this can be worth several points in the betting line. A more subtle injury to a role player, such as a key sixth man or top defender, can provide stronger betting opportunities because oddsmakers adjust the line less when role players miss games, even though the results can still be impactful. Current form is essential to follow. Make sure you are backing a team that is playing well and has its preferred lineup intact.
Handicapping the NBA Playoffs is different than the regular season, especially since the same teams play each other in a best-of-seven series. Rest and travel are no longer a factor. There can be value on either the underdog or the favorite. For example, if the Dodgers are a favorite to the Orioles, which side has value?
The best way to find value is to keep your own set of power ratings. This will allow you to quickly spot any mistakes that the bookmaker may have made when setting the lines. The books know that popular teams like the Yankees, Cowboys, and Alabama are going to get a ton of public money. Since this is the case, the books shade the line a point or two against those teams. Heck no, sometimes the obvious choice is the best play.
College and pro athletes are still human beings and human beings have good days and bad days. What would be considered a great spot? Andy Reid off of a bye week would be considered a great spot when you go back and check his track record with both the Eagles and the Chiefs. Another strong spot is called the Bounce Theory. This is where you look to play on a team that is coming off an embarrassing loss and is eager to right the ship.
Taking advantage of these bonuses and maximizing the full amount is an excellent way to build your bankroll early in your sports betting career.
Handicapping the NHL is a bit different than betting other sports. There are many steps to becoming a successful hockey handicapper. While others are strict line shoppers. You can adopt any number of these steps as they surely will improve your skills as an NHL handicapper.
Here are our top tips for handicapping hockey that will lead you to profitability as a sports bettor. When it comes to bonuses, payout options and speeds, and betting limits — SportsBetting.
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